Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement Forex Factory

美联储加息25基点 年内或再加息一次,同时决定缩表。 by 北扶桑 on 2017-06-15

北京时间6月15日凌晨2点,美联储6月会议宣布加息25个基点,将联邦基准利率从0.75%~1%的区间上调至1%~1.25%的区间。这是美联储年内第二次加息,也是2008年金融危机之后的第四次加息。
美联储在声明中表示,考虑到经济继续温和增长,劳动力市场持续好转,做出加息决策。美联储在声明中同时表示,大多数联储官员预测2018年将加息3次,预计今年将再加息一次。
美联储决策委员们预计,联邦基金利率2017年年底预期为1.4%,这意味着今年还有一次加息。而据CME“美联储观察”(FedWatch)显示,投资者预计,美联储今年再加息一次的可能仅为35%。
近期美国通胀数据疲软,一度让市场参与人士对美联储6月行动力有所怀疑。数据显示,美国失业率已经降至4.3%的历史低点,但就业增长并未带来预想中的通胀回暖。今年4月,美国CPI同比增速自2015年底以来首次跌至2%以下。此外,美联储主席耶伦所看重的的通胀指标个人消费支出指数(PCE)也将处于1.5%的低位。在联储利率公布当日,美国公布的CPI和零售数据均低于市场预期。
在6月利率决议声明中,美联储同时列出4.5万亿资产负债表的缩减计划,将以每月100亿美元缩减起步,其中包括每月缩减国债再投资60亿美元,并缩减抵押贷款支持债券(MBS)再投资40亿美元。缩表规模将按季度扩大。
点阵图显示,只有一名委员反对本次加息。明尼苏达联储主席Neel Kashhari表示,他希望等到通胀上升时再加息。
美联储预计,2017年年底、2018年年底、2019年年底的联邦基金利率分别为1.4%,2.1%和2.9%,与此前的预期一致。
以下是美联储6月份货币政策声明的全文:
自联邦公开市场委员会5月份召开会议以来所收到的信息表明,就业市场已继续增强,今年截至目前为止经济活动一直都在温和上升。自年初以来,就业增长有所慢化,但平均而言一直都很稳健,失业率则已有所下降。家庭支出在最近几个月中有所改善,企业固定投资则已继续扩张。按12个月基础计算的通货膨胀最近以来有所下降,而且跟不计入粮食和能源价格的指标一样在某种程度上低于2%。整体而言,以市场为基础的通胀补偿指标仍旧保持在较低水平;以调查报告为基础的长期通胀预期指标则基本保持不变。
联邦公开市场委员会正在依据其法定使命来寻求培育最大就业和物价稳定。联邦公开市场委员会目前预计,通过逐步调整货币政策立场的方式,经济活动将以稳健的步伐扩张,就业市场状况将进一步在某种程度上有所增强。按12个月基础计算的通货膨胀近期预计仍将在一定程度上低于2%,但从中期来看则将持稳在联邦公开市场委员会的2%目标附近。经济前景的近期风险看似大致平衡,但联邦公开市场委员会正在密切通货膨胀的形势发展。
考虑到已实现及预期的就业市场状况和通货膨胀,联邦公开市场委员会决定将联邦基金利率的目标区间上调至1%至1.25%。货币政策立场仍将保持宽松,从而为就业市场状况的进一步加强和通货膨胀持续重返2%提供支持。
为了判定联邦基金利率目标区间未来调整的时机选择和规模,联邦公开市场委员会将对有关其最大就业和2%通货膨胀目标的已实现和预期经济状况进行评估。这种评估将把一系列广泛的信息考虑在内,包括有关就业市场状况的指标、通胀压力和通胀预期指标、以及有关金融和国际形势发展的读数等。联邦公开市场委员会将仔细监控与其对称性通货膨胀目标相关的实际和预期将有的通货膨胀发展形势。联邦公开市场委员会预计,经济状况的发展将可令其有理由逐步上调联邦基金利率;在一段时间之内,联邦基金利率很可能仍将保持在低于长期普遍值的水平。但是,联邦基金利率的实际道路将依赖于未来数据所表明的经济前景。
联邦公开市场委员会将维持现有的政策,将来自于所持机构债和机构抵押贷款支持债券的本金付款再投资到机构抵押贷款支持债券中去,在国债发售交易中对即将到期的美国国债进行展期。联邦公开市场委员会目前预计将从今年开始实施一项资产负债表正常化计划,前提是经济形势的演进发展广泛符合预期。这项计划将通过减少将来自于证券的本金付款用于再投资的方式来逐步降低美联储对那些证券的持有量,联邦公开市场委员会在附录的“政策正常化原则和计划”(Policy Normalization Principles and Plans)中对这项计划进行了描述。
在此次会议上投票支持联邦公开市场委员会货币政策行动的委员有:主席珍妮特·耶伦(Janet L. Yellen)、副主席威廉·杜德利(William C. Dudley)、莱尔·布莱恩纳德(Lael Brainard)、查尔斯·埃文斯(harles L. Evans)、斯坦利·费希尔(Stanley Fischer)、帕特里克·哈克(Patrick Harker)、罗伯特·卡普兰(Robert S. Kaplan)和杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome H. Powell)。尼尔·凯西卡瑞(Neel Kashkari)则投了反对票,他更希望在此次会议上维持现有的联邦基金利率目标区间。
美联储声明原文如下:
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year. Job gains have moderated but have been solid, on average, since the beginning of the year, and the unemployment rate has declined. Household spending has picked up in recent months, and business fixed investment has continued to expand. On a 12-month basis, inflation has declined recently and, like the measure excluding food and energy prices, is running somewhat below 2 percent. See Fed statement.
Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee continues to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to remain somewhat below 2 percent in the near term but to stabilize around the Committee’s 2 percent objective over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely.
In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1 to 1-? percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation. See Fed ‘dot plot’
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.
The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee currently expects to begin implementing a balance sheet normalization program this year, provided that the economy evolves broadly as anticipated. This program, which would gradually reduce the Federal Reserve’s securities holdings by decreasing reinvestment of principal payments from those securities, is described in the accompanying addendum to the Committee’s Policy Normalization Principles and Plans.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; and Jerome H. Powell. Voting against the action was Neel Kashkari, who preferred at this meeting to maintain the existing target range for the federal funds rate
submitted by robot301_01 to kfq [link] [comments]

I believe I know why USD tanked yesterday after FOMC statement

My thanks go to alotmorealots for writing such a nice post. It really made me think and search why EUUSD reacted as it did, though I did not trade it this time.
If you look at the 30 Day Federal Funds Futures chart, you will a significant upward movement yesterday. It coincides with the FOMC statement release time if you switch to intraday. When the fed funds futures goes up, it means that the lower interest rates are expected. Thus, fed funds futures market has clearly interpreted the statement as such that implies lower future interest rates. It was likely interpreted that way by big USD speculators as well (otherwise, it would create a huge arbitrage opportunity between FF futures and USD spot markets). Of course, it brought weakness to the US dollar across all currency pairs.
The exact reasons for such interpretation are unclear to me, but I guess some big institutional market participants had hoped that Yellen would produce a more hawkish statement and/or projections (though they were not quite dovish either - see difference with February statement). There also was one FOMC member who voted against the rate increase.
submitted by enivid to Forex [link] [comments]

The big fat r/Forex FOMC Minutes and Dollar thread

Let's talk FOMC and the USD.
FOMC Minutes
The short version is that after parsing through the language of the FOMC minutes, most analysts see a somewhat mixed to positive message:
Also
Why are the minutes important?
The key to understanding why FOMC is important this time comes from this statement:
Interest rates up means dollar up, it's that easy. 10 year rate hit 2.93% today, wow!
USD
Most targets, except for USDJPY due to it's correlation to SPX/SPY and DJI, are bullish. I saw several small gap downs in futures which represent a strong opening for the USD. USDCAD is looking to tear. AUDUSD is potentially breaking a huge support line at .7800.
You aren't getting 100% guidance because that doesn't exist in FX. It's anebvulous message. There is likely other factors too:
All in all is seems to be bullish for USD. Read this: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-turn-around-fomc-minutes-bargain-hunters-buy-back-the-dollar-201802212341
So, what say you?
submitted by El_Huachinango to Forex [link] [comments]

ITT: I teach you how simple it is to trade Fundemental Analysis

I did one for technical analysis, so here's one for fundemental analysis (here is the previous thread: http://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/2nc2dt/itt_i_teach_you_how_simple_it_is_to_make_money_in/ )
Steps:
  1. Realize that Fundemental Analysis is extremely important to the success of a trader who trades the Daily and above timeframes. The goal is to make sure that the trend from TA lines up with the view from FA. (ie. Bullish FA + Bullish TA= success).
  2. Go to http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php to view all news events. Change the settings to show only [RED] expected impact. We mainly care about Inflation, Central Banks, and Speeches. Red just means high volatility upon release.
  3. The BIGGEST problem most people have with trading FA is that they think EVERY red news is important. That is FALSE. We mainly care about the Central Banks and what they do with any Stimulus, Interest Rates, and Inflation. These are the 3 holy grails for trading FA. The Central Bank are the ones who calls the shots.
  4. Go to www.investopedia.com and learn what Central banks montary statements, Quantiative Easing, Interest Rates, and Inflation really is. You want to know how the market reacts to a Quantiative easing, highelower intrest rates or inflation, ect ect ect.
  5. Every month or so, a country will release a statement that's given by the central bank. You will need to read these statements, and trust me it's not hard. It's only once a month for each currency for gods sakes.

    Currency|BankName

    EUR: ECB

    USD: FOMC

    AUD: RBA

    NZD: RBNZ

    CAD: BOC

    JPY: BOJ

    GBP: BOE

  6. Click on this image: http://prntscr.com/5vixoy .

    The Red box is what you click on to bring down more information.

    The Pink box is a basic outline of what that news event is.

    The blue box is the important one. This is where 3rd party news articles about that news event is posted. (i prefer bloomberg and reuters).

    Click on any of them to read it. Notice that they fill up with 3rd party articles AFTER the news release (duh).
  7. The point isn't to trade before the central bank news release, but AFTERWARDS. You want to know what the central bank is thinking. An example: Doing a Quantitative easing will cause the value of a currency to fall, since USD did 3 quantitative easing in the past, this happened: http://prntscr.com/5tuebl . Notice how when the bank said they WILL do it soon, it caused a rally. We love these rallys. We make $$$ off this shit.
  8. So you basically want to read what they are saying and figure out which direction they are looking towards. Not every country is WANTING to increase the value of their currency. Some care more about inflation, interest rates, unemployment, ect. Reading the central bank statements will TELL YOU. Remember to always keep in mind that market sentiment WILL change based on economic data releases. Meaning if we know USD will be bullish, it's only once certainly bullish IF criteria is met. That criteria may be any of the economic indicators, and if they're NOT met, expect pullbacks. You can either trade these pullbacks (bit risky) or you can use them as opportunities to make trades toward the overall goal of the central bank (Buy USD in this case). Also, don't think that when a central bank says 'we want to increase interest rates in February.' means that they WILL do it in February. If the indicators aren't good, they won't increase it.
  9. Example: BOJ wants to issue a quantitative easing stimulus on 10-31-2014. So, Trebel decides to not use his indicators and decides to short JPY because he learned that doing a Quantiative easing stimulus causes the value of that currency to fall dramatically (not to mention Tecnical analysis says that the trend for JPY is bearish)! Trebel is now happy and can go chase some big booties with his money.
  10. Example 2: SilkyBrah decides to buy JPY because they had good unemployment numbers , but later he finds out he got margin called. WHY?! Because JPY doesn't care about their unemployment numbers like USA does, they care about something else. SilkyBrah will next time read the central bank statement to know what event is important for that country.
Some of you probably don't understand WHICH news event is from the central bank, so here's a picture: http://prntscr.com/5vj12g
EDIT: I tried to dumb this down as much as possible.
Thanks for the Reddit gild/gold whoever it was. No idea what I do with them though lol
EDIT2: Okay. Bloomberg's new website layout is beyond horrible. I now will use Reuters and other competitors instead.
submitted by masudhossain to Forex [link] [comments]

Steady gain in the gold market on last Friday upon the weakness of U.S dollar

There has been a massive fluctuation in the price of the gold market in the last Friday.as the investors were in doubt about the recent strength of the US dollar the price of gold sharply move in both the direction in the forex market during the trading session. However, at the end, the bulls were the winners and took the control of the market before the market closed. The gold price was settled at 1179.20 gaining a 9.8 percent in that day. In the month of February, the price of gold delivery was at one point at $ 1177.70 but this gain was erased as the price dropped to 1168.40.There has been also a sharp drop in the U.S unemployment rate for near about 4, 6% which is the highest drop within the last decade. However, the non-firm payroll data was positive and the payroll rose by 178k in the market. However, the leading economist was expecting 180k which means 90 millions of U.S workers are yet to find their job. The recent strength of the U.S dollar was boosted by the U.S presidential election as Mr. Trump came up with very optimistic solutions for their economy. However, over the course of time, his statement lost the power in the global economy and the strength of the dollar is again slipping down. The FED is most likely to hike their interest rate in the month of December since the ongoing performance of the U.S economy is pretty stable and such an increase in the interest rate will significantly impact the gold price since it is priced in dollars. According to FED rate hike, monitor tool there 91.3% chance that FED will hike their interest rate in the upcoming FOMC meeting minutes but leading economist are doubted since the FED might need another rate hike for the longevity of their dollar strength in the global economy.
In last Friday the price of gold had a strong rally in the market as the U.S dollar lose its strength in the market on the release of the weak Non-farm payroll data. To be precise if the dollar starts to retreat at this moment than this might cause a shift in the commodities price including the precious metal gold. On the contrary, the average hourly income of the U.S citizen has grown significantly in the last few months and investors are considering this fact as a strong sign for the new bulls in the market. The consumer sentiment of the U.S economy is also very positive at the current moment since they have been eased with lots of promising statement by the newly elected president Donald Trump. The leading economic researchers are still in doubt about the real strength of the dollar since most of the strength I s based on an optimistic statement by the leading leaders of the U.S economy.
The investors are in fear since they have no clue about the recent performance of the U.S dollar. In the eyes of trained professional, the upcoming FOMC meeting minute is going to play a major role in the gold and commodities market. They are cautiously waiting for the FED decision to extract a clear information about the recent economic performance and a future plan of the U.S government. If the FED come up with the hawkish statement in the month of December then it will be a very hard time for the precious metals investors since deeper decline will rule the market. In the next week, the US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment data will be released and this data will also help the traders to understand the current market sentiment. The US dollar Index is currently trading below the critical daily support line at 100.75.This means clearly creates a doubt into the mind of investors about the sustained strength of the U.S dollar. If the S dollar index fails to find enough bullish momentum at the current level then we will see a sharp decline in the U.S index towards its next critical support level at 100.55.This level is going to play a significant role in the global economy since with a closing of the price near that level will indicate a closing near its weekly lows. On the contrary, the price of gold is trading well above the resistance level. Currently, the resistance level is $1175.95 and this level has turned into a strong support level. If the price of gold extends above $1180.56 level then we will see a nice bullish run in the price of gold for a prolonged period of time.
The intraday support for the gold is currently at $1167.22 and 1162.67.This clearly demonstrates that the gold as plenty of support below and there is strong chance that the breakout will be in the upward direction. However, the recent pending interest rate decision has become one of the major issues for the gold investors since interest rate change can significantly change the price of gold in the financial market. Considering all the facts trading the gold at the current price level is extremely risky. Experts have no clue about the recent strength of the US dollar and where the strength will go in the next FOMC meeting minutes.TO be precise the FED are now in the driving seats and all the investors are cautiously waiting on the sideline for the better trading opportunity. In the opinion of expert investors, it’s better to enter the market after the dust settles down since they will have a clear overview of the fundamental factors of the market.
submitted by dwaynebuzzell to tradingfx [link] [comments]

ITT: I teach you how simple it is to trade Fundemental Analysis

I did one for technical analysis, so here's one for fundemental analysis.
Steps:
  1. Realize that Fundemental Analysis is extremely important to the success of a trader who trades the Daily and above timeframes. The goal is to make sure that the trend from TA lines up with the view from FA. (ie. Bullish FA + Bullish TA= success).
  2. Go to http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php to view all news events. Change the settings to show only [RED] expected impact. We mainly care about Inflation, Central Banks, and Speeches. Red just means high volatility upon release.
  3. The BIGGEST problem most people have with trading FA is that they think EVERY red news is important. That is FALSE. We mainly care about the Central Banks and what they do with any Stimulus, Interest Rates, and Inflation. These are the 3 holy grails for trading FA. The Central Bank are the ones who calls the shots.
  4. Go to www.investopedia.com and learn what Central banks montary statements, Quantiative Easing, Interest Rates, and Inflation really is. You want to know how the market reacts to a Quantiative easing, highelower intrest rates or inflation, ect ect ect.
  5. Every month or so, a country will release a statement that's given by the central bank. You will need to read these statements, and trust me it's not hard. It's only once a month for each currency for gods sakes.

    Currency|BankName

    EUR: ECB

    USD: FOMC

    AUD: RBA

    NZD: RBNZ

    CAD: BOC

    JPY: BOJ

    GBP: BOE

  6. Click on this image: http://prntscr.com/5vixoy .

    The Red box is what you click on to bring down more information.

    The Pink box is a basic outline of what that news event is.

    The blue box is the important one. This is where 3rd party news articles about that news event is posted. (i prefer bloomberg and reuters).

    Click on any of them to read it. Notice that they fill up with 3rd party articles AFTER the news release (duh).
  7. The point isn't to trade before the central bank news release, but AFTERWARDS. You want to know what the central bank is thinking. An example: Doing a Quantiative easing will cause the value of a currency to fall, since USD did 3 quantiative easing in the past, this happened: http://prntscr.com/5tuebl . Notice how when the bank said they WILL do it soon, it caused a rally. We love these rallys. We make $$$ off this shit.
  8. So you basically want to read what they are saying and figure out which direction they are looking towards. Not every country is WANTING to increase the value of their currency. Some care more about inflation, interest rates, unemployment, ect. Reading the central bank statements will TELL YOU.
  9. Example: BOJ wants to issue a quantitative easing stimulus on 10-31-2014. So, Trebel decides to not use his indicators and decides to short JPY because he learned that doing a Quantiative easing stimulus causes the value of that currency to fall dramatically (not to mention Tecnical analysis says that the trend for JPY is bearish)! Trebel is now happy and can go chase some big booties with his money.
  10. Example 2: SilkyBrah decides to buy JPY because they had good unemployment numbers , but later he finds out he got margin called. WHY?! Because JPY doesn't care about their unemployment numbers like USA does, they care about something else. SilkyBrah will next time read the central bank statement to know what event is important for that country.
Some of you probably don't understand WHICH news event is from the central bank, so here's a picture: http://prntscr.com/5vj12g
EDIT: I tried to dumb this down as much as possible.
And here is the previous thread: http://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/2nc2dt/itt_i_teach_you_how_simple_it_is_to_make_money_in/
submitted by masudhossain to Fundamentalanalysis [link] [comments]

Forex Tips How to trade the FOMC statement on Wednesday March 18 2015 Learn forex trading and how to trade the FOMC minutes and ... Trading FOMC NEWS RELEASE Forex Trading Blog - Live During The FOMC Statement Before you join FxST - (Full FxST Review)  Simple Way to trade forex during news FOMC Statement How To Trade the FOMC Statement & Press Conference Forex One Minute Strategy Proof video Trading live FOMC

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement From federalreserve.gov The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals. November 05, 2020. Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement. For release at 2:00 p.m. EST. The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this ... Global Markets With only a few hours left until the anticipated FOMC statement, the markets have entered a state of standby. Whilst the probability that a US rate hike in this evening’s FOMC statement is quite low, the focus may be directed to the tone of the statement and additional clarity on when the Fed may actually move forward. If today’s statement concludes dovish in addition to ... The full statement from the FOMC September 2020 meeting . The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting ... Perfect Money Forex Brokers; WebMoney Forex Brokers; Trading Conditions › High Leverage Brokers; CFD Brokers; Scalping Brokers; Execution Brokers; Guaranteed Stop Loss; News Trading Brokers; Low Spreads; Forex Trading Platforms › Social Trading Brokers; Currenex Brokers; MT5 Brokers; cTrader Brokers; Free VPS Hosting Brokers; MT4 Brokers; Live Forex Charts. Major Pairs › GBP/USD; EUR/USD ... Get the FOMC Statement results in real time as they're announced and see the immediate global market impact. The U.S. Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement is the primary tool the panel uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of the vote on interest rates, discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future votes.

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Forex Tips How to trade the FOMC statement on Wednesday March 18 2015

Watch this video for trding tips and "How you can trade FOMC" on Wednesday March 18. 2015. We will be looking for possible breakout moves and trends that develop as a result of FOMC. This video ... You will notice I trade my Forex accounts with Bitcoin as the base currency. I don’t care if you use dollars, euros or pounds as yours. Strategies work the same on all account types. Understand why... NPF FOMC News Straddle Strategy for Forex and Nadex - Duration: 13:26. SlickTrade 5,656 views. 13:26. 5 Things I Wish I Had Known When I Started Trading Forex 🖐️ - Duration: 9:46. ... A Live Forex hangout during the November FOMC Statement release. FOREX BROKER KILLER. Your Big Mouth can stop your blessings, Your birthday is the right time for resolutions ~ DJ Coach - Duration: 25:49. DJ Coach FBK 38,045 views This video is unavailable. Watch Queue Queue. Watch Queue Queue Learn forex trading and how to trade the FOMC minutes and make over 100 pips. https://www.josephfibonacci.com/learn-forex-trading-in-30-days

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